CatlinSpeak

For many soccer enthusiasts the renovation of Jeld-Wen Field and Portland’s first Major League Soccer team, the Timbers, have been great things. Promise to the city of Portland by owner Meritt Paulson included job creation, economic growth, and a strong fan base that would bring the city together. Although the Timbers popularity in the city is undeniable, is the fiscal effect truly beneficial?

As specified by the Turner Construction Company, which managed the field’s $40 million renovation and expansion, the project incorporated many new attributes. These included the addition of a new playing field, covers over most of the new seating, club seating with a full-service restaurant, new grandstands with concessions, new restrooms, a new training facility as well as renovated and upgraded locker rooms. Public funds covered $31 million that was to be paid back to the city through parking and ticket sales.

Mike Golub, chief operations officer of the Timbers Major League Soccer franchise, shared his opinion about how the Timbers have affected the Portland economy. He says that originally he believed that with “Portland being such a passionate soccer city, we knew that if we did things right it would be enormously successful.”

Jeld-Wen Field initially opened for the Timbers’ first appearance as a Major League Soccer team in 2011. Since then, the team and the new stadium, in Golub’s opinion, have had a positive financial impact throughout Portland. “The stadium and team have created many jobs. Visitors from all over the country and throughout the region have come to watch Timbers games. While here, they are spending money on hotels, restaurants, and shops.”

Field view of a Timbers game in the Jeld-Wen Field (Photo: Kate Ellis)

Including ticket sales, the franchise uses several other financial targets to help measure success.“We continue to be among the leading in ticket sales and sponsorship in the league. We are also considered to be one of the most successful franchises in the league. We have sold out every regular season game that we have played and have a waiting list for tickets of more than 7,000 people,” says Golub.

Golub explains, “We measure success in many ways. In addition to ticket sales, sponsorship, and merchandise sales, we look at web traffic, television ratings, and social media followers. We are among the league leaders in all of these metrics.  But perhaps more importantly, we judge our success on how much a part of the fabric of the community we are and how much we are doing to give back to the community.”

According to Golub not only are the Timbers bringing economic growth but also advertising Portland through their success on television. “Several hundred thousand more people are coming to our stadium each year. Also, we are bringing well-known stars from other cities. All of our games are on television, and we have eleven games on national television, which helps shine a light on the team and on Portland.”

Golub also commented on the positive aspects that the team has created throughout the local community. “It’s been an incredibly fun and successful first few years for the Timbers in Major League Soccer. We are very proud of what we have been able to accomplish and proud that the team and the experience are resonating so well with the city and our fans.  Sports has a unique way of bringing people together for a shared experience, and I think the Timbers have been a great example of that. We will continue to do everything we can to make being a fan of the Timbers a fun and rewarding [experience] and we will continue to do everything possible to give back to our community.”

Although many believe that the Timbers are having a positive economic impact on Portland, there was criticism when the team started as to whether using public money for the renovation of Jeld-Wen Field was appropriate.

In a city council meeting, Amanda Fritz, the only city commissioner to vote against the final proposal stated, “I am not making my decision today whether soccer is a great sport or not. I am making it whether it’s the best economic use of our city space and our city dollars … I am being asked to vote on the dedication of millions of dollars of taxpayer money.”

Portland Development Commission’s deputy director and Catlin Gabel alum, Keith Witcosky, says, “Portland has rarely been a city which spends on sports as an economic development or job strategy. The city owns PGE Park, so the initial investment in the late 1990s was about leveraging more use and income at the stadium.”

Right before kickoff the Timbers Army holds umbrellas symbolic of Portland (Photo: Peter Koe)

One argument against establishing sports stadiums claims that most people have a limited entertainment budget, and spending money on a soccer game would detract from spending that goes towards other entertainment, like cinemas. Witcosky addresses this complaint by responding, “In some situations, the money spent, at say a Timbers games, would usually have been spent by people in the local economy for other entertainment choices if soccer did not exist. Although the Timbers are an anomaly, I think they generate more discretionary spending. As a season ticket holder, I know myself and my friends spend more in the local economy during Timbers home games than we would on other entertainment choices.”

He also argues that the Timbers not only help nearby pubs, food carts, and restaurants but also businesses across the city because many people flock to them to watch games on television. He has found that at these places sales have increased. Witcosky adds that the nonprofit Timbers Army help fund parks and fields throughout the community.

Although little research has been conducted about the actual economic effect of the Timbers, it appears that they have given Portland financial growth as well as a popular source of entertainment, city pride, and national attention. According to former mayor Sam Adams, “Portland must build its international profile, and the language that the world speaks most, is the language of futbol.”

Despite two failed women’s soccer leagues in the past decade, the new NWSL, or National Women’s Soccer League, seems to have a solid foot in the door with eight teams across the country, all with US National Soccer Team stars. Portland’s team, the Thorns, have played two games so far, tying Kansas City and defeating the Seattle Reign.

The Thorns home opener was on Sunday, April 21 at Jeld-Wen Field. The match was played against their early rivals, the Seattle Reign. Over the span of the current season, Portland will face the Reign a total of four times. Seattle was missing two of their key players on Sunday, Hope Solo, star US keeper, and Megan Rapinoe, feisty US midfielder, who will both be away from the NWSL until June, due to a wrist injury and playing in a European league, respectively.

Portland soccer fans definitely seem to feel good about the roster the Thorns have acquired. Heading up the front line are world class forwards, Christine Sinclair and Alex Morgan. Sinclair has played on the Canadian national team for thirteen years and currently holds the title of the third most goals for women on the international level of all time, behind retired Mia Hamm and Western NY Flash player Abby Wambach. Christine Sinclair attended University of Portland and made a very prestigious name for herself, breaking records and winning championships. Sinclair’s uncle, Brian Gant, coached soccer at Catlin Gabel for many years. Alex Morgan (nicknamed “baby horse” on the US national team) helped lead the United States team to gold in the 2012 Olympics and silver in the 2011 World Cup.

Thorns coach, Cindy Parlow Cone, is new to coaching, but has a vast amount of soccer experience. She played at the professional level, earning two gold medals and one silver medal, for eleven years until 2006, when she retired due to injuries. She seems very excited about coaching in Portland and during interviews on April 20 spoke of the “amazing atmosphere” and “tremendous reception from all of the Portland area.”

The Portland Thorns (Photo: Ian Fyfield)

So far, the Thorns seem to be a team that excels in the second half. During their game against the Reign, after halftime, they seemed to find their groove and be in the correct field positioning to get a few balls up to Morgan for goal scoring opportunities in the box. Morgan finally got her first goal for the franchise and the second for the Thorns in the game in the 51st minute. Thorns defender, Marin Dougherty, off of a corner kick, scored the first. Aside from what has so far looked like a stellar offense, the Thorns have a solid defensive base in Rachel Buehler (US National team defender) and Karina LeBlanc (Canadian National team keeper).

Although Sinclair usually plays forward, Parlow placed her in midfield. Sinclair spoke of this adjustment after the game and seemed enthusiastic about taking on the role. In the postgame press conference, Parlow said this of the decision and Sinclair: “[She is] one of the best passers of the ball in the game and I wanted her on the ball more for that reason, so we dropped her more into the midfield so we could get her the ball more and you saw it tonight with her feed onto Alex.” Along with utilizing Sinclair’s strong talent for feeding balls down the field to attacking players, Parlow also talked of the chemistry between Sinclair and Morgan. They played on a team together during the last women’s league and have already built a degree of trust between each other.

CatlinSpeak got a chance to talk to Morgan after practice on Saturday the 20th. Most people, in an interview with Morgan, would talk about soccer. When CatlinSpeak spoke with her, it concerned pulled pork and the great pulled pork french fries at Potato Champion.

When talking with the Thorns assistant coach John Galas, the question came up about how the new US women’s soccer league would overcome the difficulties past failed leagues struggled with. Galas said support from league officials as well as the Canadian, Mexican and American soccer federations was key, and that this league was built from a different model. He also commented about the great turnout, saying “the support that we’ve seen around the league, attendance wise, in the opening weekends was a very positive sign”. Galas hopes the league continues to strive, not just for his sake, but for these talented players that deserve it.

Sunday’s game against the Seattle Reign was definitely an important event for this league’s future. A record was set for the NWSL, with 16,479 people attending the Portland game. This comes as no surprise, seeing as the men’s professional soccer team in Portland, the Timbers, has a large fan base. Like the Timbers games, fans sang and chanted in an exuberant manner. Rachel Buehler, Portland Thorns defender, described the Portland fans turnout to be “World Cup-type style.”

Rutgers University fired men’s basketball coach Mike Rice, Jr. one day after ESPN’s “Outside the Lines” published a video that showed Rice using gay slurs and physically abusing players. The video drew widespread condemnation, ranging from New Jersey governor Chris Christie to NBA superstar LeBron James.

In December of 2012, Rutgers athletic director Tim Pernetti first received a copy of the videotape from a disgruntled employee. Pernetti fined Rice $50,000 and suspended him for three games. ESPN user Cam Lied and Tebow Cried expressed a widely held view on the situation, commenting on an article, “[Pernetti] knew about the video and did not fire him until public backlash, [he] should go too.” Pernetti has since resigned from his position amid public criticism of his handling of the situation.

Mike Rice Jr. is the son of the Portland Trail Blazers’ color commentator Mike Rice, Sr., who commented on the situation through his Twitter account, saying: “It’s a difficult day, but I appreciate everyone’s support and concern. I will not be discussing this further at this time. Thank you.”

After a tumultuous year, the Timbers now face the 2013 season with a different perspective, a new coach, and an altered lineup. The organization and fan base face much uncertainty after firing the first head coach since the team joined the MLS in 2010, and releasing Kris Boyd, a high-profile striker. While he was the team’s leading scorer, Boyd’s 2012 season proved to be a disappointment, and new head coach Caleb Porter questioned whether he fit with the team dynamic and ended his contract in January.

(Photo: New York Times)

Porter, in fact, had many more plans for the team. After taking his position as head coach in August, he analyzed the team before concluding that the team needed a change in attitude, which would come with more experience. Porter drastically rearranged the roster, bringing in several veteran players while releasing others.

Porter’s strategies have proven somewhat effective in preseason games. He focuses on getting the players more involved in the game, and developing a stronger bond within the team.

However, the team still faces many imperfections. At 56 goals, the Timbers let in the third-highest number of shots in the MLS during the 2012 season. In this upcoming season, the Timbers still have a weak player in the center back, clearly a concern considering the defensive flaws of last season. With Ryan Miller and Michael Harrington filling strong defensive wing positions, the team’s greatest concern revolves exclusively around the central channel.

With David Horst and Hanyer Mosquera suffering from injuries, the players most likely to start are the inexperienced Andrew Jean-Baptiste and Mikael Silvestre.

With changing the way the team thinks and structures itself, many fans remain uncertain about the upcoming 2013 season. Fortunately, the loyal Timbers Army will soon find out.

At first, it seemed inevitable that the 2012-13 season would be a rebuilding year for the Portland Trailblazers. With a rookie coach, a new general manager, and a roster filled with inexperienced youth and aging veterans, most people in the organization expected that the season would end in the draft lottery.

However, due to Damian Lillard’s Rookie of the Year-caliber season, LaMarcus Aldridge’s continued dominance, and career years from J.J. Hickson, Nicolas Batum, and Wesley Matthews, the Blazers now lay just a few games out of the playoffs.

Neil Olshey, Portland’s general manager, has an important question to answer as the trade deadline, February 21, approaches: Should the team trade for a player that will push them over the top, or stockpile picks and let young players develop in order to make a run a couple of years down the road?

Wesley Matthews and J.J. Hickson are fan favorites, but might also be on the block at the deadline. (Source: USA Today)

Olshey recently outlined the team philosophy on the matter, saying, “if we can find a deal that moves the needle on a long-term basis, we’re going to be as active as anybody, but we’re not going to take incremental moves that take away our long-term flexibility.”

Olshey has made it clear that he focuses on the future above all else, but is willing to take a risk if the opportunity presents itself. He proved this in 2011 when, as the Clipper’s GM, he traded away valuable assets for Chris Paul, who was coming off an injury-ridden season.

The Blazer’s main weakness is very clear: They have the worst bench in the NBA, statistically, with no bench player averaging over five points or four rebounds. Portland needs to address this problem, especially since Batum, Lillard, and Aldridge all rank among the top ten players for minutes per game.

Fixing this problem may require the Blazers to trade away starters like Hickson and Matthews to strengthen the bench, give up future draft picks to strengthen the team now, or plan ahead by trading for high picks in future drafts. Here’s a look at some possible trade scenarios, taking into account both players on the block and team needs.

Center J.J. Hickson, Point Guard Nolan Smith to the Milwaukee Bucks for Power Forward Ersan Ilyasova
Wondering why Hickson has been named in so many trade rumors? Well, the Blazers’ most effective lineup this season has not, in fact, been their starting lineup, but rather when LaMarcus Aldridge moves to center and Luke Babbitt replaces Hickson, according to advanced statistics.

That lineup allows the Blazers to spread the floor and run their bread-and-butter play, a Lillard-Aldridge pick-and-pop, to perfection. Lillard sets up at the top of the key, with Batum, Matthews, and Babbitt spread outside the three-point line ready to catch and shoot. Aldridge sets a screen on either side of Lillard’s man, then, as Lillard dribbles off the screen, he pops to the elbow. Lillard can drive, shoot, bounce it to Aldridge for his standard elbow jumper, or kick it to any of the shooters on the outside.

The only problem with this setup now is that the Blazers are unimpressive three-point shooters, ranking 26th of 30 teams in the NBA. That’s where the trade for Ersan Ilyasova comes in. He has the size to bang down low and has deep range, connecting on 42.4 percent of his threes this year.

Ilyasova has been in Bucks’ coach Jim Boylan’s doghouse for a decent stretch of the season, and Milwaukee, which needs to start rebuilding if the team wants to avoid being in 8th-9th seed limbo over the next few years, would welcome Hickson’s expiring contract and a chance to see him in action before possibly re-signing over the summer.

Shooting Guard Wesley Matthews to the Minnesota Timberwolves for Center Nikola Pekovic
Minnesota is one of the few teams in the NBA that is worse at shooting than Portland. In fact, if the Timberwolves continue at their current pace, they will join the record-setting, offensively inept 2011-12 Charlotte Bobcats as the only two teams in the last ten years to shoot less than 30 percent from deep.

Shooting guard Wesley Matthews would step in and immediately become the team’s best three-point shooter, and provide ironman-like durability to a team that has been extremely injury-prone over the last two seasons. He would be another option on the perimeter for Ricky Rubio, and would help keep the offense afloat until Kevin Love returns from his injury.

The Blazers have expressed interest in Nikola Pekovic before, and he would provide them with a physical, low-post scoring option that they have lacked since Zach Randolph was on the team back in the JailBlazer days.

Pekovic also has value in that his contract expires at the end of the season, at which point the Blazers could re-sign him or use their tantalizing $20 million-plus in cap space to pursue a free-agent class that ranges from helpful additions such as O.J. Mayo and Kyle Korver to players who could push the Blazers over the top, like Andre Iguodala and Al Jefferson.

Center J.J. Hickson to the Cleveland Cavaliers for Small Forward Alonzo Gee, 2013 First Round Draft Pick
This trade would return Hickson to the team that originally drafted him in 2008. Cleveland has been looking for young players to surround its star point guard Kyrie Irving, and with a litany of picks in upcoming drafts, Cleveland should be willing to trade one for a proven commodity in Hickson.

On Portland’s side, the team can use Gee to relieve Nicolas Batum, who is third in the entire league in minutes played, despite playing hurt for a long span this season. With Hickson gone, rookie Meyers Leonard can step in at center for the Blazers and work on his game for the rest of the season.

The Portland metro area has been without a professional baseball team since the Timbers uprooted the Portland Beavers in 2010. This spring, however, baseball will return with the arrival of the Hillsboro Hops.

The Hops, who are relocating from Yakima, are the Single-A affiliate of the Arizona Diamondbacks. The team’s name and mascot reference the plant named hops, used in beer brewing (Oregon is the second-largest hop-producing state in the US by volume), and the common baseball sayings, “short hop,” “bad hop,” and “crow hop.”

The Hops insignia (Photo: Wikipedia)

The team is owned by Short Season, LLC, and managed by Bob Didier, a former Major League catcher. The Hops will play in the southern part of the Northwest League against teams from Boise, Eugene, and Salem-Keizer. The team’s new stadium, adjacent to the existing Hillsboro Stadium, is currently under construction and scheduled for completion in June 2013. Opening day will be June 17 and will feature the Hops against the Eugene Emeralds.

On October 29th, the OSAA Classification and Districting Committee met in the DoubleTree Lloyd Center Hotel in Portland. Among the items on the day’s agenda was a discussion about contracting Oregon high school sports and activities from six classifications to five.

Since the OSAA expanded from four classifications to six in 2006, complaints have trickled in from large schools about thinned out competition and scheduling difficulties.

“We’re not sure [what’s going to happen], because we haven’t seen any proposals yet,” OSAA Assistant Executive Director Peter Webber said in a phone interview. “We’re looking at five, we’re still looking at six.”

In a summary of the day’s meeting, the concerns of the 5A and 6A schools (those with an average daily membership, or ADM,  greater than 870 students) included “size of leagues, competitive balance and travel,” along with “rankings nullifying [the] need for leagues and transportation.”

The Eagles have enjoyed tremendous success under the six-classification model, including a 2010 State Championship in Girls Track and Field. (Photo: Ian Meier)

“The main reason we would need to reclassify is to accommodate the 5A and 6A classifications,” Catlin Gabel Athletic Director Sandy Luu explained in an email. “The 1A-4A classifications are generally happy with where they are.”

Luu said she is watching the discussions very carefully. While Catlin is currently situated at the 3A level, the changes could potentially significantly affect the Eagles’ future athletic teams.

“I am very interested in the numbers they choose for each level if they do move to 5 classifications,” Luu said. “If there is a change, we are hoping that 3A will be [comprised of schools with an ADM between] 400-226 [students]. As long as this happens, there won’t be huge changes for us at CG.”

Catlin has reason to hope for minimal change. Since the OSAA moved to six classifications in 2006, the Eagles have finished in the top two at the state level 28 times across nine sports, compared to just 21 times in six sports the previous six years. Reclassification would likely mean current 4A schools shifting down into Catlin Gabel’s classification, making athletic matchups more competitive.

“If we did need to change to the new ADM numbers, we would need to compete
with bigger schools,” Luu said. One proposal to add a multiplier of 1.25 to private schools’ average daily memberships was voted down at the meeting. This would have significantly raised ADM totals for all private schools, resulting in many schools moving to larger classifications.

When asked how he thought contraction would affect small school like Catlin Gabel, Webber was unsure. “You could keep [classes 1A through 4A] intact, and just combine [5A and 6A] and it wouldn’t have any effect,” he said, “but I’m not sure if that’s what’s being talked about.”

When asked if he had any additional comments, Webber said simply: “It’s very early.”

He’s right. The Classification and Districting Committee won’t make its final proposal to the OSAA Executive Board until October of 2013. The changes, if accepted, would not take effect until the fall of 2014.

“I think they will keep the numbers close to where they are at present,” Luu said. “Since 1A-4A schools want to keep numbers very similar, I believe they will make larger classifications in 5A-6A.”

In the big picture, change is likely on the horizon for the OSAA. The next ten months could have dramatic implications for high school athletics in the state of Oregon.

Houston Rockets Forward Royce White. (Source: nytimes.com)

Do players with some kind of physical abnormality or psychological condition, ever become successful in the NBA?

Many players in the most recent NBA draft were “red flagged” because of serious ailments. White (drafted 16th), Jared Sullinger (drafted 21st), or Perry Jones III (drafted 28th) were all top-five draft pick talents, but were stricken down because of various ailments.

White has been diagnosed with an anxiety disorder that causes him to fear flying, a near-insurmountable problem considering NBA players fly more than forty times annually.

Sullinger and Jones received medical red flags for back and knee problems, respectively. As a result, all three players fell heavily in the draft, and were selected by teams that could afford to risk draft picks.

This year’s draft is an oddity––most draft years scarcely contain players with medical or psychological conditions. The most well-known player to have been drafted in recent years with a risky and serious knee condition was San Antonio Spurs forward DeJuan Blair in 2009.

Blair was one of the best college players in the nation, finishing second in the Associated Press College Basketball Player of the Year poll and leading the nation in rebounding.

Doctors questioned his durability and knee strength, causing him to drop to the 37th pick, where the Spurs drafted him. So far, Blair has had a solid career as a role player for San Antonio, averaging 8.5 points and 6.5 rebounds, and has not had a major injury in his three seasons.

On the other hand, two particularly well-known players had an ignored prior history of injuries. Sam Bowie, drafted 2nd in 1984 by the Portland Trail Blazers, missed two of four seasons at the University of Kentucky due to a shinbone injury. Bowie’s career may have been moderately successful, if not for his injuries.

Similarly, in 2007, the Trail Blazers drafted Greg Oden with the 1st pick, despite an elongated leg caused by hip surgery Oden underwent in sixth grade. Oden played only 82 games, and no longer played in the NBA by 2012. While Oden showed potential, his career was cut short before it could pan out.

Many medical red flags initially go unannounced. This was the case for shooting guard Brandon Roy, who was drafted in 2006. Roy’s knees were red flagged by doctors, causing the Minnesota Timberwolves to trade Roy to the Trail Blazers. Roy was a three-time all-star who played at a high level for four seasons, but was slowed by knee injuries and forced to retire in 2011.

News about Roy’s knee condition did not become public until 2012, one year after he was forced to retire. In 2009, the Trail Blazers gave Roy a five-year, 80 million dollar contract without any insurance in case of knee injuries. Why, given Roy’s history, was his contract not insured in any way? Why do teams repeatedly take these medical risks?

The truth is, as long as players are talented enough, teams will always take risks. In the Trail Blazers’ case, three exceptional players offered enough potential benefits to outweigh their risks. Bowie and Oden were supposed to anchor the Blazers’ defense for the next decade. Roy was an elite player for four seasons.

Chet Kammerer, the Miami Heat vice president of player personnel, states, “Most of the time those players are still able to play, but the length of their careers are definitely altered because of things that are a part of their history.”

This is true––Oden and Roy have actually had better careers and statistics than most players who have been drafted. The catch is that their careers have been significantly shorter.  Roy has returned to the NBA this year.

What will happen to players who are flagged in the future?  They will most likely drop in the draft like White, Sullinger, and Jones. As of early in the 2012-13 season, all three rookies have been languishing deep in their teams’ benches.

Similarly, Blair has been relegated to a bench role, and has taken to Twitter to air complaints over his playing time.

That shows the true irony of the situation: these so-called talented but damaged players aren’t even good enough to play. In a sport where skill is paramount, it is talent that holds these players back.

The future in Eugene, Oregon, looks bright.

After a 95-year Rose Bowl drought, the Oregon Ducks amassed 621 total yards in a compelling 45-38 win over the Wisconsin Badgers. Chip Kelly earned vindication with his first BCS bowl win as the Oregon Ducks head coach. Finally, after falling to Ohio State in the 2010 Rose Bowl and Auburn in the 2011 National Championship, as well as losing the season opener to number-one ranked LSU last September, Kelly was able to silence the naysayers, the critics, and the haters of the Oregon Ducks football program.

They said the Oregon Ducks could never beat an elite team. They said strength would always outdo speed, and when faced with an offensive line that benches an average of over 300 pounds, blocking for a Heisman finalist running back paired with one of the greatest quarterbacks in college football, the Ducks had no chance.

Boy does it feel good to prove them wrong.

Many Duck players stepped it up on the national stage. Lavasier Tuinei, the Duck wide receiver who had a subpar season, finished with 158 yards on 8 for 9 pass completions from quarterback Darron Thomas and two touchdowns. LaMichael James, who had never scored a touchdown in the postseason with Oregon, finally got a rushing touchdown with 159 yards on 25 carries. And who could forget the black mamba, De’Anthony Thomas, who despite only touching the ball twice, scored each time on runs of 64 and 91 yards. He averaged an unbelievable 77 yards per carry in the Rose Bowl, and he’s only a freshman.

In my previous article, I predicted that the Oregon Ducks’ young cornerbacks would be the difference in a close game. And while I underestimated the final score, my overall prediction proved correct. With nearly four minutes to go and Wisconsin having a chance to tie the game after an Oregon field goal, a Wisconsin pass from Russell Wilson to Jared Abbrederis was punched out by cornerback Terrance Mitchell for a fumble, and then recovered by Michael Clay. The Ducks all but sealed the game, leading by seven at that point. The late Badger turnover was what the Ducks needed to earn their first postseason win under Kelly’s tenure.

But Kelly’s program is always looking to the future, treating every individual game like the Super Bowl. And although star running back LaMichael James and quarterback Darron Thomas will be leaving for the NFL Draft next season, the Oregon offense will still feature prolific players, including returning senior running back Kenjon Barner, playmaking sophomore option back De’Anthony Thomas and sophomore quarterback Bryan Bennett. Additionally, three-fifths of Oregon’s offensive line will be returning. On the defensive end, the young Oregon Ducks secondary was able to develop quickly this season because of Cliff Harris’s release from the team—experience that will surely help the Ducks in the next season.

The Oregon Ducks also face arguably one of the easiest schedules in the history of the program next fall. They play three subpar nonconference teams in Arkansas State, Fresno State, and Tennessee Tech. They follow with unchallenging Pac-12 play: four of the teams they face will undergo coaching changes next season that will play to the advantage of the Ducks program. Stanford has no second Andrew Luck waiting in its wings. Oregon’s only true test next season will be dismantling the now postseason-eligible USC and returning QB Matt Barkley in his own arena. The 2012 Pac-12 Championship game will most likely feature Oregon vs. USC.

The only issue with such an easy schedule is that it will be easy for BCS computers to give the largely untested Ducks a low ranking, but hopefully that will not prove to be an issue as Oregon should start the season ranked in the top five after winning the Rose Bowl. But if an SEC team goes undefeated and another SEC team only has one loss, like LSU and Alabama this year, the computers might take the SEC teams to the Natty, leaving Oregon’s best hope a consecutive Rose Bowl victory. My concern with this outcome lays in the fact that the Rose Bowl might become too boring a postseason destination for the fans of the talented Ducks squad.

My prediction for next season: University of Oregon goes 12-0 and returns to the National Championship.