In Major League Baseball, October is a time when wild card teams can become world champions. In the postseason, great pitching staffs can silence thunderous lineups, one incredible performance can ignite teams, and players can completely change the course of their careers (think David Freese last year).
The team that ends the regular season with the best record is not always a sure bet to win the World Series. In 2011, the St. Louis Cardinals were 10.5 games out of first place on August 24. However, after winning 23 of their last 32 games, the Cardinals were able to maintain their impressive streak into the postseason and beat out the Texas Rangers (third-best record in the MLB) in the World Series.
The playoffs consist of 5 teams from each league: the three division winners, and two wild card teams. The two wild card winners play a one-game playoff to determine who moves on to the division series.
What follows is a look at playoff-bound teams and their chances entering October. Please note that this will be updated once the playoffs begin.
National League:
1. Washington Nationals
Biggest Strength: Starting Rotation
For the first time since 1933, a baseball team from Washington D.C. will enter October with the best record in the regular season. Much of this success can be attributed to the starting rotation which, despite losing Stephen Strasburg, still holds a collective ERA of 3.40. Jordan Zimmerman, Edwin Jackson, and Ross Detwiler back up Cy Young candidate Gio Gonzalez in a foursome that should push the Nationals into the later rounds of the playoffs.
Biggest Question Mark: Will they miss Strasburg?
The Nationals are a very well-rounded team with a potent offense, deep rotation, and shutdown bullpen. However, questions will linger as their best pitcher, Stephen Strasburg, sits on the bench due to his team-imposed innings limit in his first season following Tommy John surgery on his right elbow. While the starting four seem to be without weak links, the absence of
Bryce Harper, WSH (Photo: Washington Post)
Strasburg could leave a hole atop the rotation.
Key to Success: Bryce Harper
Only 19 years old, Harper has had an up and down rookie season. While many have applauded his defensive ability and power, he nonetheless enters the postseason with a .270 average and a .340 on-base percentage. However, the 2010 number-one pick has not shied away from the big stage in the past, and if he steps up this postseason, the payoff for Washington could be huge.
2. Cincinnati Reds
Biggest Strength: Bullpen
Imagine being in the playoffs and finding your team down a run in the last inning against the Reds. Aroldis Chapman enters the game, and immediately you are going up against 100+ mph fastballs and devastating sliders from one of the best closers in the game. Joining him in the
Aroldis Chapman, CIN (Photo: New York Times)
Reds’ bullpen is a group, headed by Sean Marshall and Jose Arredondo, that has the lowest bullpen ERA of any team in the majors at 2.65.
Biggest Question Mark: Offense
For a team with great pitching, the Reds’ chances at a title will be hampered by the average offense. They rank in the middle of the league in batting average (.251), home runs (172), and runs scored (669). Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips anchor the middle of the lineup, but they need help from the rest of the offense if this team is going to compete in the postseason.
Key to Success: Jay Bruce
Helping Votto and Phillips could be the right fielder, Jay Bruce, who has seen his batting average fluctuate every month this season. Still, if Bruce can get hot and continue to hit balls out of the park (he has 34 home runs this season), he can give the Cincinnati offense a nice boost in October.
3. San Francisco Giants
Biggest Strength: Starting Rotation
In 2010, the Giants’ starting rotation led them to a World Series victory. This year, we may just see a similar story. Despite Tim Lincecum’s awful 2012 season, the Giants starters still have combined to pitch to a 3.73 ERA. Look for the group of Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, and Ryan Vogelsong to carry San Francisco deep into the playoffs.
Biggest Question Mark: Bullpen
The Giants’ 2010 run also saw the emergence of a devastating bullpen, lead by Brian Wilson and his beard. However, this year it’s a different story. Instead of Wilson and Santiago Casilla coming out in the late innings, it’s guys like Brad Penny and Clay Hensley. Middle relievers have had to step up to replace the late-inning guys, and the team has suffered because of it (3.56 bullpen ERA).
Key to Success: The other starters
You know your pitching is solid when you have two former Cy Young award winners fighting for the last spot in the playoff rotation. Tim Lincecum and Barry Zito have both shown signs of life this season, and if one can get on a hot streak, it could easily be enough to catapult the Giants toward another title.
4. Atlanta Braves
Biggest Strength: Bullpen
While Aroldis Chapman has been great, Craig Kimbrel is simply the best relief pitcher in Major League Baseball right now. A 1.01 ERA, 42 saves, and 116 strikeouts in 62.2 innings are video game numbers. That late-inning dominance, combined with Jonny Venters and Eric O’Flaherty, gives Atlanta one of the best bullpens of any playoff team.
Biggest Question Mark: Offense
The Braves’ great pitching has so far been hampered by the offense, which ranks on the lower end of baseball (17th in runs scored and 21st in batting average). The story here seems to be disappointment. Chipper Jones isn’t getting any younger, Dan Uggla has lost his starting role, and Brian McCann has seen a substantial drop in batting average (.230 entering the postseason). However, if any of these players can step up and join Jason Heyward, Martin Prado, and Freddie Freeman, the Braves could be dangerous.
Key to Success: Tommy Hanson
Unfortunately for the Braves, Tommy Hanson’s career has not followed the team’s envisioned trajectory. His ERA has risen every year since his rookie season in 2009. This year, it sits at xxx, which is 70th out of 94 qualified starters. However, all the Braves need is for Hanson to harness a little of his past to be a serviceable fourth starter behind Tim Hudson, Kris Medlen, and Mike Minor.
American League
1. New York Yankees
Biggest Strength: Offense
Much has been made all season about the Yankees’ dependency on home runs and inability to hit with runners in scoring position, but New York still ranks as one of the best offenses in the league. New York ranks second in runs scored (804), first home runs (245), and first in OPS (.790). The consistent Derek Jeter has now been joined by a resurgent Robinson Cano, who has nine straight multi-hit games, and is 24 for his last 39 to end the season.
Biggest Question Mark: Bullpen
Phil Hughes, NYY (Photo: New York Times)
In the past couple of years, the Yankees’ bullpen has been a strength. On paper, New York seems to have a great mix of arms: Joba Chamberlain and Boone Logan anchor middle relief, and David Robertson sets up for Rafael Soriano, who has done a fantastic job replacing
Mariano Rivera as the Yankees’ closer (42 saves in 46 chances). Still though, New York’s bullpen has faltered many times this year, blowing 13 saves and accounting for 17 losses.
Key to Success: Phil Hughes
The Yankees’ rotation sets up pretty well for October: CC Sabathia remains a horse at the top, and he’s followed by two reliable veterans in Hiroki Kuroda and Andy Pettitte. However, the fourth man offers a little bit of uncertainty. Phil Hughes has all the skills to succeed: he strikes out 7.76 batters per nine innings and only walks 2.16 batters per nine innings. However, he has switched back and forth between dominating lineups and getting hit all over the place. If he can harness his ability to pitch well, the Yankees could find themselves in a great position.
2. Texas Rangers
Biggest Strength: Offense
The Rangers have one of the best lineups in all of baseball. The team has scored a major league-best 808 runs, and ranks second in team batting average (.273). Such production can largely be attributed to a deep lineup, which features the likes of Josh Hamilton, Mike Napoli, Adrian Beltre, and Ian Kinsler. In addition, the recent call-ups of Jurickson Profar and Mike Olt should provide Texas with a deep bench.
Biggest Question Mark: Starting Rotation
The Rangers starters as a whole has a dreadful 4.30 ERA. Matt Harrison has had a terrific year (18-11 3.29 ERA), but Yu Darvish, Derek Holland, and Ryan Dempster have all been inconsistent. The Rangers will need quality innings out of this rotation if they are going to make it back to the World Series for a third consecutive year.
Key to Success: Yu Darvish
In his first year in the United States, Japanese ace Yu Darvish has put up some impressive numbers (220 strikeouts and a 3.90 ERA in 191.1 innings pitched). However, he has yet to show consistency and is a concern for the Rangers entering the playoffs. But if Darvish can harness his remarkable pitching ability, it would give Texas a tremendous boost.
3. Baltimore Orioles
Buck Showalter, BAL (Photo: New York Times)
Biggest Strength: Buck Showalter
Simply put, the Orioles are a statistical anomaly. Their offense is average (15th in runs scored), their pitching is below average (21st in ERA) and so is their bullpen (21st in ERA). This one will have to be chalked up to Buck Showalter’s magic. He has taken a team of young players and transformed them from one of the worst teams in baseball to one of the best. While they do not have the impressive collection of players that some other teams do, the Orioles still have one thing going for them that cannot be ignored in October: they’re the underdogs.
Biggest Question Mark: Offense
All that aside, the Orioles still have one of the weaker offenses in the league. They rank 15th in runs scored (712), 20th in batting average (.247) and 12th in OPS (.728). So far, their success has come from winning close games: Baltimore is 29-9 in one-run games. However, in the playoffs a one-run lead is nothing. One swing can change the game in a heartbeat, and without a solid closer, the Orioles are susceptible to that big hit.
Key to Success: Young Guns
If the Orioles are going to find success in the playoffs, it’s going to have to begin with their young starting pitchers. Wei-Yin Chen, Chris Tillman, and Zach Britton have all pitched well this season, but have all been knocked around by teams like the Yankees. If they can step up in the postseason though, it could give Baltimore fans a lot more to cheer for.
4. Oakland Athletics
Biggest Strength: Starting Rotation
For years, the trademark of the Oakland A’s has been young pitching. Back in the early 2000s, Tim Hudson, Barry Zito, and Mark Mulder led the team to multiple winning seasons. Now, the rotation consists of Jarrod Parker, Tommy Milone, A.J. Griffin, and Dan Straily, who have combined to pitch to a 3.88 ERA in 498 innings. If these four can continue their impressive seasons into the playoffs, it could push the A’s into the World Series.
Biggest Question Mark: Offense
If good pitching is a trademark of the Oakland A’s, so is a lack of offense. Oakland currently ranks 28th in baseball with a .238 team batting average, and 14th in runs scored with 713. While Yoenis Cespedes and Josh Reddick have had impressive breakout seasons, they’re backed up by players who have been rejected from other teams (Stephen Drew and Seth Smith). The offense will need to step it up if the A’s are to stand a chance against tough American League opponents.
Key to Success: Ryan Cook
After starting the season as Oakland’s closer, Ryan Cook fell to middle relief after a disappointing season. However, Cook has stepped it up in the month of September, pitching to a 1.29 ERA and 0.72 WHIP in 14 innings. If he continues to pitch well, it would provide Oakland with a strong 1-2 punch at the end of the games with Cook setting up for Grant Balfour.
5. Detroit Tigers
Biggest Strength: Star Power
The Tigers’ success in the postseason will come primarily from four guys: 3-4 hitters Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder, and 1-2 starters Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer. Among those, you have the Triple Crown winner and likely American League MVP (Cabrera), the possible American League Cy Young (Verlander) a 30 home run/100 RBI hitter (Fielder), and Scherzer who is second, only to Verlander, in strikeouts. This collection of stars should combine to give Detroit impressive power, both on the mound and at the plate, and push the team towards the World Series.
Biggest Question Mark: Bullpen
The Tigers will be hoping that Verlander throws complete-games every time out, because backing him up in the bullpen is a collection of relievers that have struggled this year. The Tigers’ bullpen, which features Joaquin Benoit, Octavio Dotel, and Phil Coke, has pitched to a xxx ERA this season, but every pitcher has struggled at some point. For the Tigers to be successful, the bullpen needs to step up and shutdown the ends of games.
Key To Success: Back-end Starters
While Verlander and Scherzer have been terrific, the pitchers that follow them leave a little to be desired. Rick Porcello has pitched to a 4.59 ERA, which is 73rd in the majors. However, Doug Fister offers a better 3.45 ERA, and recently set an American League record by striking out nine-straight batters. If Fister can help the Tigers overcome a shaky Porcello, the Tigers’ hopes for a World Series win would all of a sudden look a lot better.
Prediction: Washington Nationals over Oakland Athletics
The great thing about October is that any of these teams could win the World Series. However, the Washington Nationals still stand out as the team best poised to claim the championship. With great pitching complementing a solid offense, the Nationals have all the makings of a championship-caliber club. Even with Stephen Strasburg watching from the bench, this young club could be well on its way to winning the franchise’s first-ever World Series title.
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